Weighting the arbitrage factor in bets

Weighting the arbitrage factor in bets

Exclusive theme these days, there is talk of the Fair Line and projection of odds and statistical models, but and arbitration, do you count on it? I tell! And today I explain everything! Once again, we go by parts, today a technical article and with the arbitration factor, which many do not talk about or take into account in their weights or bets.

It is complicated to define weights for arbitration these days and on top of that the VAR is ending our bets. But then we are going to approach this subject with delicacy and without implying anything, otherwise I will be left to reckon if they knock on my door.

Weighting in bets

Can we put a weight on our Fair Lines tables for arbitration? I answer already – no! I wouldn’t risk any of that, I don’t have it, for me refereeing is considered an “out” element to the game.

But now you ask “out”, Ricardo? Yes Out, as impossible as it may seem, I prefer to think like this, as if it were something external that can influence the game. But am I really not right?

You see, it’s complicated we’ll know today the referees’s performances, the choices or the appointments are a little arbitrary and that doesn’t allow us to create any statistical or comparative model for each of the men on the whistle, right?

I will still add the following to this problem, the Portuguese referees have been “whistling” outside, and I speak in the Arabian leagues. So how do we manage to ponder something so diverse?

We did not succeed, it is very complicated, I believe, however, that those who bet on the card market may know a little more rum than I do in the evaluation of the referee or better in the arbitration trio, but in this field we are already going.

With performances in different leagues and in completely different games and difficult to have a “real” sampling of the referee’s behavior and we add the fact that if that referee misbehaves, he can spend a few weeks without appearing on any field.

Having a sense of how each game can influence the referee would say is like hitting the Euromillions key. Here we don’t have news or cryotherapy, nothing, information about how the referee’s week went, no, we don’t know, and we don’t even know who it will be.

In fact, most of the time we only know the referee and who is in the VAR even on the day of the game, which leaves us hands and feet tied, when we want to put a weight on our Fair Lines table.

So it is explained and justified that having a weight for arbitration is very complicated, or I would even say impossible.

Standardization of arbitrations

What we can retain is the standard of an arbitrator or arbitration trio, there are several sites on sport that already provide the number of cards that the referee has shown, for example.

Knowing and interpreting the yellow card sampling pattern for example can be good for taking into account the number of cards, good for side bets and to understand how quickly a red card can come, obviously that will condition the game.

Even a high number of yellow cards can impair the “normal” development of the game, many yellow cards the team has more care, less entries, less “risk” and if on the one hand we may have an imbalance on the other hand it can help us in our analysis depends on our entry into the game.

Expecting an average is really what we can get, and adding to the “toughness” of the game, for example, a Derby or a Classic, has a slight tendency to be more harsh, therefore more cards, and if we add to that a hand referee take it to the card we can be more conditioned or not in our analysis.

Undoubtedly, anyone who is used to analyzing card bets has a tremendous advantage here in the pre-analysis of the games and, of course, he will be the ideal person to talk to in order to try to reach a consensus in terms of standardization.


We’ve already talked about a little bit of everything and we’re missing the VAR, having more eyes on the pitch and deciding for the best, which is the motto of the new VAR technology, which is to bring the “sporting truth”, it’s something we cannot quantify either, but we can come up with some performance standards.

For example, VAR acts more in Big games than in small ones, VAR is more incisive in Derby’s games or in Classics for example.

Another addendum is that the field referee allocates a little responsibility as a VAR because in certain moves he may question his “score” and have a direct influence on the game AND even on the final result.

This external weight is very important to take into account today, as you can see in certain games he may have more strength in theory than others. We bettors will have to know how to evaluate this factor more, the VAR issue.

VAR can help for some, for others not, some defend others, but today and here in this article the idea is to try to give “weight” to VAR and to know how we can insert it in our pre-game analyzes.

In short, I have already given you some clues to do so, or take into account, in practical cases in the Classic games or in the Derby’s.


After the above and in what I wrote above, it is now necessary to make a slight reflection on the non-use of the arbitration weight or to include it in some way in our Fair Line table or to give it our connotation in the final decision.

I think that for those who bet on cards, using side bets, it should be included and a lot, having a statistical base in your hand will be very important to decide on which line of cards the value is.

In Punter’s pure and simple analysis, knowing what that referee is going to do or who is in the City of Football at VAR can also be, in my view, important in our way of seeing and interpreting the game.

Knowing whether that game is going to be tough or not, whether that referee has the capacity to withstand the “pressure” of that specific game is important. Deciding a bet taking these factors into account is indeed important these days.

We know that too much yellow card spoils the game or conditions and the worst will be the red cards, which changes the whole strategy of a team on the field.


Use the information from the VAR team and the referee trio wisely, try to understand their influence on the game and understand what they can extract from it in the bet they are going to make.

It is important to know what they are going to do or not to do, if they can handle what the game requires and this is important in our bet selection.

The suggestion is to use a metric for this type of behavior by the referee and the VAR, and use them separately.

VAR is one thing and the arbitration team is another. Each has its weight, but use it metricly, only as a guide and not as a decisive one.

I explain it better now, do not use type 1 to 5, use the type more or less, try to quantify in the best way this external intervention that the game feels, and depending on the refereeing or VAR teams.

Using it as a direction and not as a “value” will be the best choice you can make in your future pre-game analysis.

I think it was as explicit as possible, it is complicated to explain in detail how to “ponder” about arbitration in a game or about VAR, which still came to give us more headaches.

Personal opinion

The VAR, like the recent refereeing in my opinion, reveals what football needs most, if in England the VAR is decided by the millimeter, in Portugal it has flaws and in other leagues it doesn’t even exist.

In my opinion as a bettor, it only gave us a headache, because it is something else that we have to think and ponder before betting.

It is no longer enough to know what each team does during the week and what each player does, now we have to assess these external factors.

My opinion is, simply, a headache, but possible to be solved, but of course it forces us to study more and to be more knowledgeable, now not only from team A and B but also what that referee usually does or no and if you have nerves of steel.

That’s all for today, I hope you like it, because it brought an unprecedented theme and that every Monday also makes ink the famous cases of arbitration in newspapers and now the new fashion is VAR.

A hug and good bets.